The Counterterrorism blog has a chilling update on Pakistan. If this and similar reports are largely true, the American people are in for a big surprise. My guess is that most of it is accurate, because similar reports keep popping up.
They’re one coup away from a nuclear-armed and unapologetically pro al Qaeda regime that could trash Afghanistan, re-start the Kashmir war with India, and provoke China into God knows what. Invading and subjugating such a nation is probably impossible and would require the cooperation of nearly the whole world.
The news from Pakistan is a Le Carré mess of garbled signals and spooky tidbits. It’s pretty clear from everything you can see that bin Laden and Omar live there and are protected, that their “tribal areas” are not in any way governed, and that Musharraf is the classic doomed dictator trying to play both sides of a losing game.
And nukes. If Seymour Hersh is to be believed, Bush Sr. just barely kept Pakistan from attacking India with nuclear weapons during a particularly bad time in those two countries’ relations. Personally I’d much rather worry about a nuclear Iran than about a place that’s barely a nation and dominated by mobs and “tribes” owning nukes and F-16s.
I wonder how much bourbon they go through in the Pentagon when they play out these scenarios.
Be My Blog 
As allies go, the Paks are worse than the Israelis. Their Inter-Services Intelligence is certainly the most insane spook agency in the world, singlehandedly creating the Taliban and playing at least a stepfather role to the early Al Qaeda.
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Oh, joy…
If/when Musharraf falls, and if/when the ‘special’ Special Forces unit that’s supposed to ‘secure the nukes’ fails to do so, New Delhi will have about six hours or so to decide whether or not to launch a full scale nuclear attack on Pakistan. *sigh* I have been grumbling for close to two decades that the first ‘regional nuclear war’ would be an Indo-Pak event. How lovely that I’ll get to be right. ;P
~M~
..btw I ganked this in toto for my LJ..
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Re: Oh, joy…
Yeah, that was the thrust of Hersh’s piece years ago. Scared the shit out of me and gave me a bit more respect for Bush Sr. and James Baker for being on the job and saving the world that week.
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> Singlehandedly creating the Taliban
We had a lot to do with that too.
There was an intelligent proposal floated at one point, I gather, for the US to support secular education in Pakistan as a viable alternative to the extremist schools that provide the only affordable quality schooling in the country. Much cheaper than blowing those people up later. Of course we didn’t do it. Made too much sense.
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the US->ISI->Taliban connections make a person queasy to hear about.
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… I didn’t mean to conflate those two remarks, btw. Our role in puffing up the Taliban came during the Afghan war. The “non-jihadist education for Pakistanis” thing came later.
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Pockystan is a honeypot, here on Planet Honeypot
I predict we’ll hear more of this phrase:
<a href="http://www.exile.ru/2006-May-19/genocide_the_right_pain_medicine.html"
>”preventative genocide”
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Not bourbon. Haloperidol.
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Weeeeell…there goes the positive energy I needed for my pre-sleep masturbation tonight. Bugh.
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